New Mexico Takes a Turn for the Worse

New Mexico, the poster child for successful state-wide vaccination, slipped onto the naughty list last Friday, 16 April. On the naughty list are the states who have seen an increase in the rate of new COVID-19 cases since the beginning of April. The growing list is on the right side of the plot above.

To be fair, New Mexico still has one of the lowest new case rates, about 10 new cases per 100,000 population compared with the national rate of 20 new cases per 100,000 population. The national rate has been falling for the past two days, hinting that the Fourth Surge isn’t that, it’s just a big orbit about the March/April mean rate of 18.9 new cases per 100,000 population. You can see this in the seven-day average phase plot below.

So the national rate is back where it started at the beginning of March. New Mexico, however, like many states that were doing well in March, has seen a slow creep toward increasing case rates in April. This is shown in the plot below. It’s still possible that April will see the rate orbit about the late March/April mean of 8.9 new cases per 100,000 population. See my web page for more info.

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